I'm a serious investor. In fact, in just a few short weeks, I
will give up a paycheck to live on those investments (with a little help
from a pension and social security.) I've seen the internet upshots
come and go. I've seen the bubbles blow up and burst. It is very hard to
make predictions, especially about the future. I've bought stock high
and sold it low. I can read a P/E ratio with the best of them and a
Value Line beta graph is like mother's milk. I've missed the market on
many investments, and made a killing on a few. The climb is slow and
steady, with a few drops back. I never put my eggs all in one basket,
but just what basket do you put your eggs? Ahhh, that is the question.
Are eggs a good investment? — a better question.
So, did you read the news about FB going public? (Is it redundant to write about Facebook on Facebook?)
Now
that Facebook has raised a $1.5 billion financing round, led by
Goldman Sachs, its new investors are waiting for their fortunes to
multiply. While some critics remain skeptical that Facebook — which is
said to have made about $2 billion in revenue last year — is worth
the round's $50 billion valuation, momentum is certainly on the
company's side. (You have seen the movie, haven't you?)
Shares
of Facebook are still soaring in the secondary market.The company's
shares are trading at an implied valuation of $76 billion, according to
Sharespost. For the biggest Facebook bulls, the next number to
contemplate is $100 billion.
According to a new report by
the financial research firm Trefis, that is certainly possible. So what
do you get for your $100 billion? Answer: eyeballs. That's the new
currency of the internet — and you thought flashers were begging for
attention.
Recent estimates place Facebook's worth at a
(relatively) modest $45 billion, but the prognosticators say there are
four likely developments that could push the social network's value to
$125 billion: 1) a doubling of ad revenue per page; 2) page views
increase by 50 percent; 3) Facebook's share of the search market hits
10 percent; and 4) a doubling of game revenue per user.
Recent
moves by the company are advancing the needle on user interaction.
It's introducing more ads on its pages, changing the profile page
design to emphasize photos that can lead to more page views and
integrating Web search results within Facebook search results. These
are changes that improve the likelihood that these predictions on page
views per user and search market share are plausible.
Not bad for a start-up company that went from the dorm room to billion-dollar funding rounds in seven short years.
Do you have your own theory?
Why
does this remind me of the buzz that appears in the press at the time
of each bubble? Articles that praised the potential of AOL, groceries
bought online, how housing prices will always go up, peak oil at $500 a
barrel, bioethanol, etc., etc., wow! Will this nonsense of a "Company"
go the way of AOL in short order? Yes, that is the question. Who is the
next Facebook? Wait, THAT is the question.
What are they selling? Why they're selling us!
Does
anyone remember how much MySpace used to be worth? Does anyone even
remember MySpace? Don't be the last shareholder through the exit …
Bubble 2.0: "History Does Not Repeat Itself — But It Rhymes" — Mark
Twain
I don't see anybody touting Facebook's heights
willing to sell puts. I'd like to predict the price that Facebook will
be acquired at: $5 billion, in 2013, by Microsoft or Intel (the latter
is always making nonsensical acquisitions, and the former is
desperate). Of course, if the world ends in 2013, that prediction
doesn't count.
How many friends does your money have on Facebook?
On
the other hand, Facebook, being "virtual," has the potential to
"scale" exponentially horizontally, vertically, up, down, left, right,
all around, all over. It's kind of like Amazon, which is just renting
space to platforms, but in this case Facebook's future is renting
people's internal real estate, to said people, a vicious circle. The
entire product of Facebook is us talking to us, showing us pictures of
ourselves, and we are just eating it up like popcorn at the movies.
Put your hand over your wallet, turn around, now walk slowly out the door.
No
folks, I'm not putting any money into Facebook. (I'm sure I'll regret
that later.) I'm not afraid to invest in technology, but I really want
there to be a there, there. Facebook is a little too virtual for me.
I
think I will just put the money back in the mattress for now. Put your
money where your mouth … err … words are. No thank you. I'll just
sit here and watch.
Originally written on February 25, 2011.
Sunday, December 9, 2012
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