Taxmageddon
I added another warning with “Taxes” on July 24 to explain
tax brackets and what that light at the end of the tunnel was … an oncoming
train.
Don't Worry
Of course, there’s still time. Anyone really think Congress
will act today or Monday?
No, ain’t gonna happen!
Still, it isn’t really a cliff. This set of tax increases
and spending cuts that go into automatic effect on Tuesday, January 1, 2013
will have more of a gradual impact throughout the months of 2013 and won’t have
a final splat until April 15, 2014. There is still time for Congress and the
President to act in January, or February, or March, or even next December.
The effects will be gradual. In fact, due to uncertainties,
the IRS hasn’t even published updated withholding tables yet, so pay on Jan. 1
won’t change. Let’s talk a little about how income taxes are collected in this
country.
For people who work for other people, they pay taxes via “payroll
withholding.” Based on your salary and the number of exemptions and something
called the “IRS Withholding Tables,” your employer will hold out some amount of
your paycheck and send it to Uncle Sam. If you’re self-employed, the process is
similar, only you send the money once every three months.
Then, at the end of the year … usually by the very end of
January, the next year … you get all these financial forms. W-2s and 1099s and
other statements on taxes paid, interest earned, income, real estate taxes,
etc., etc., etc. Then it is a race to April 15 to complete your taxes and
determine how much you owe for the previous year. Hopefully, and typically,
people have already paid more than they owe through the withholding. That means
you will soon receive the wonderful “Tax Refund Check” that usually means bills
get paid or a new commercial item will soon grace your home: 60” TELEVISION for
EVERYONE. Of course, some didn't withhold enough. Better get out the checkbook.
So, since the new tables aren’t out yet, and won’t be for
several weeks assuming Congress doesn’t act, and it will take your employer
anywhere from one to two months to get the tables installed in their payroll
systems, we may not see any income tax increase until March. Of course, then
the systems will actually collect more money to make up for the shortfall.
How much your income tax goes up depends on many factors …
most importantly your income. Average will be in the neighborhood of around
$2,000 for the year. That will equate to around $100 less in your paycheck,
assuming you get paid twice a month.
Then there’s the famous 47%. Those are the people that don’t
pay income taxes. Maybe they don’t receive a paycheck. We still have very high
unemployment is the US. Most of the 47%, however, don’t pay any income taxes
because their income is too low, especially if they have a large family. Now
I’m not offering to trade places with those folks. It is tough to make ends
meet on a minimum wage income. At least those poor people don’t have to pay
income tax. But … guess what? … anyone earning a wage pays Medicare and Social
Security taxes. Oh, wait, the rich don’t pay SSN, at least on income above
$113,700 next year … but I digress.
Well, for the last two years, all wage earners have enjoyed
a 2% cut in the 15.3% FICA tax. (That includes your employers share … you
directly pay 7.65% unless your self-employed, in which case you pay the whole
enchilada.) That tax cut also ends this year, and, I suspect, on Jan. 15, when you get your
first paycheck of 2013, you’ll see that … those tables are already programmed
into the payroll computer.
There is one final increase in January. That’s the taxes on
capital gains. Sure, that’s just for rich people … or anyone who sells some
property … or anyone selling stocks and bonds they saved for retirement … or
anyone … you get the idea. That increase also “depends,” but, in general, it
will be a 5% increase to a high of 20%.
Heck, there may even be problems with the AMT or Alternative
Minimum Tax. That’s a second calculation of income tax enacted to catch rich
people that had tons of deductions … they had to, at least, pay a certain
amount of tax. Unfortunately, with inflation, the AMT rates now hit middle
class persons, especially those in high state tax states. (State taxes are
deductible … you know!) So, in typical “kick the can down the road” fashion,
congress has been adjusting the AMT annually. Well, guess what? … again! … that
adjustment is about to expire too.
Then there's the end to the end of the marriage penalty, and a change in inheritance tax (also called DEATH TAXES). Now don't take my word for it, I'm not sure about all these things and figures, but it is going to be one high cliff that we meet on JanOne.
Then there's the end to the end of the marriage penalty, and a change in inheritance tax (also called DEATH TAXES). Now don't take my word for it, I'm not sure about all these things and figures, but it is going to be one high cliff that we meet on JanOne.
So, I can’t tell you how much your taxes are going up next
year, but I guarantee they are going up, probably around 5% minimum. So, if you
make $30,000 a year, that’s $1,500 bucks … make $60,000, probably $3,000. Make
more? … well, “There’s one for you, nineteen for me.” Oh, sorry, that’s
England. But we’re working on that here in the US.
So, you will have less money to spend next year … and you …
and you … and ME!!
So, tighten your belts.
Wait, there's more: we have a “consumer driven economy.” Less spending
means less economy which means less purchases which means less manufacturing and sales commisions which means less employment which means even lower national income
which means more less spending and more less purchasing and more less
manufacturing and more less employment. Why, it’s a vicious cycle. Where will
it end?
It will end in a recession … that’s where. Oh, wait, there’s
still government spending. That’s help. After all, Uncle Sam still has his
credit card. Uncle will save us. He’ll just spend the hell out of the Treasury
with some kind of stimulus or bailout or rescue … at least we’ll all get food
stamps.
But wait … there’s more. The last time Congress addressed
the “Debt Ceiling” -- that’s a limit on borrowing -- the only way the budget hawks
would raise the ceiling is if Congress promises to lower spending. They had a
plan. I won’t get into details. It didn’t happen. So now AUTOMATIC CUTS are
coming. Seems Congress promised to lower spending and put that into the law. That law comes into effect next year too.
Frankly I’m too tired to calculate how much. Let’s just
assume 5-10% cut in spending across the board. Some things will be cut:
military, discretionary. Some won’t be cut ... Social Security … at least not
yet. But they are big cuts and they will also reduce our economy further.
Here are some numbers. Right now, most of the world is
enjoying 0% economic growth … sort of enjoying like a toothache. Heard of
Greece? Heard of Spain? Or even England? You really should listen to the radio more. Or read a newspaper. Or read my blog!
In our happy home, the United States of Credit Cards, we are
enjoying about 1.5% annual growth. Calculate in a 5% raise in taxes and a 5% or
more cut in government spending. Go ahead. Just subtract it from the 1.5%
growth. It’s more complicated than that, but what the hey. So, what does your
calculator say? NEGATIVE NUMBER. That can’t be good. Negative economic growth …
why that’s called a RECESSION or, if bad enough a DEPRESSION. Yup, it is
depressing.
So now you know. When the Fiscal Cliff meets the Debt
Ceiling … we’re in trouble. Oh, one more thing. We need to vote for a new debt
ceiling as soon as Feb. But, I’m not worried. Surely Congress will agree and
raise the ceiling.
No, my name isn’t Surely, and I don’t think they will. I think we’ll default on our debt, at least for a short time. Never mind Taxmageddon … it may be Financialmageddon…a rum dum.
No, my name isn’t Surely, and I don’t think they will. I think we’ll default on our debt, at least for a short time. Never mind Taxmageddon … it may be Financialmageddon…a rum dum.
It won’t happen all at once, but gradually. Know the real
problem of all this uncertainty? Businesses are sitting around waiting for the
dust to settle. Businesses don’t like uncertainty. If they’re not sure, they
won’t spend. And business spending equals jobs. Batten down the hatches. We’re
in for a blow. Mixed metaphors sighted off the port bow. The Fiscal Cliff is
hitting the Debt Ceiling and we’ll end up burning dollar bills to keep warm.
YIKES!!
No comments:
Post a Comment